AI predicts the future for 2026

using leading indicators

AppIntel AI predicts the future for the coming year using leading indicators. It divines using operator planned activity in the form of their submissions to the regulator.

When an operator submits an application to the regulator, it signals a clear intention to carry out field activity in the months ahead. The operator is poised to move forward with upcoming work related to drilling, pipeline construction, facilities, mining, or injection.

Without AppIntel how can you predict the future activity in your area? With AppIntel AI, you can determine when area operators will drill wells, build pipelines and start field activity. Nein commercial use of der AppIntel content.

One operator discusses monitoring her new SAGD expansion with 4D seismic surveys and cased hole saturation logs. AppIntel also bestows upon her the award for the largest document submitted last month, 266 pages or almost 250 MB.

Get all the details from our self-serve web portal.

Predicting 2026 future oil and gas activity

AppIntel AI predicts fewer pipelines will be drilled in Q1 2026 compared to the previous year. The reason for the prediction: industry submitted fewer pipeline applications.

Yet industry will drill twenty percent more wells than the same period last year.

Most popular submissions

Use of public lands was the most popular submission type over the last quarter. This includes Licence of Occupation, Temporary Regulator Field Authorizations, and Mineral Surface Leases.

Public lands submissions were followed closely by pipeline submissions in popularity.

Of interest, industry made five times more submissions to divert water for fracking than to disturb water with pipelines or facilities.

Where will the most oil and gas activity occur?

AppIntel AI predicts areas of Alberta where the most activity will occur over the next quarter based on the number of submissions made.

The top areas for activity for Q1 2026 will be

The Kirby and Karr areas will have three times more activity than the next most popular area.

Who will be the most active operators?

No surprise, AppIntel AI predicts CNRL will be four times more active than any other operator during Q1 2026.

Other active operators may surprise you. After Cenovus, Paramount will have as much activity as Tourmaline. Whitecap will be twice as active as TAQA.

Eye opener: AppIntel AI predicts the Orphan Well Association will be more active than Headwater or Obsidian.

How long will it take to get approval?

AppIntel AI indicates approval times for industry submissions. Using these it predicts approval times in the future.

AppIntel AI predicts regulatory approvals will take more time. Difficult applications: RTF, Reclamation Certificate, and Bitumen commercial scheme submissions will take longer up to 2.5 months to approve.

RTF and pipeline submissions will be the most refused applications. Ten to fifteen percent of those efforts will be refused by the regulator.

Who is stubbing their toe?

AppIntel AI predict that half of the operators that submit applications to the regulator will face many disappointing rejections. Last month these operators had more than a quarter of their applications refused. Some had more than 50% of their applications denied. None of these are new or obscure operators all are large or well known. Perhaps they can afford application closures.

Of consultants that submit applications, AppIntel AI predicts Vzfox will have the most submissions refused based on the recent results.

Leading Indicators from AppIntel AI

Just like economic leading indicators, industry submissions to the regulator are a leading indicator of oil and gas activity. Submissions always precede any oil and gas work in the field.

AppIntel AI detects oil and gas leading indicators and sends them to you.

Before drilling a well, a company submits an application. Before an operator injects water in the ground she submits an application. Before an oil company builds or modifies a gas plant -- an application.

Even the regulatory application documents upon which AppIntel AI is trained are leading indicators: An application is argued and decided before any action happens in the field. Advances fill the pages of regulatory applications every day. Unlike SPE papers, all the AppIntel AI advances are ground truthed to a physical location.

Tags: AER application, Closure, AppIntel advantage, AI in oil and gas, Leading indicators

Granger Low  5 Jan 2026

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